2026 figures show stronger migrant arrivals, fewer departures and a continuing loss of New Zealand citizens
Statistics assistance by Migration Expert Umer Rasib | Visa Guru
New Zealand’s annual net migration gain more than doubled in the year ended July 2026, rising to a provisional 20,300 from 9,600 a year earlier. The increase was driven by two movements at the same time: migrant arrivals rose while migrant departures fell. Yet the national total conceals a sharp divide. New Zealand continued to gain tens of thousands of non-New Zealand citizens while losing a large number of its own citizens overseas.
Stats NZ estimated 134,400 migrant arrivals and 114,100 migrant departures in the July 2026 year. Arrivals increased by 5 percent from the previous year, while departures declined by 4 percent. The resulting net gain was 20,300, compared with 9,600 in the year ended July 2025. Because these are provisional outcomes-based estimates, Stats NZ published confidence intervals of about plus or minus 1,400 for arrivals, 1,200 for departures and 1,800 for net migration.
| Measure | Year ended July 2025 | Year ended July 2026 | Change |
| Migrant arrivals | 127,849 | 134,434 | +6,585 | +5.2% |
| Migrant departures | 118,256 | 114,084 | -4,172 | -3.5% |
| Net migration | 9,592 | 20,350 | +10,758 |
Gain Accelerates
The latest figures mark a clear acceleration from the relatively subdued levels recorded during much of 2025. Annual net migration had fallen to 9,231 in the year ended August 2025 before gradually strengthening. It reached 11,470 in the December 2025 year, 14,052 in the March 2026 year and 17,480 in the June 2026 year. The July result of 20,350 continued that upward movement.
This is still far below the extraordinary post-border-reopening peak. Annual net migration reached 133,700 in the year ended October 2023. The July 2026 result is therefore a recovery from recent lows, not a return to the exceptional migration surge of 2023. That distinction matters when the figures are used in political debate or discussions about housing, infrastructure and labour supply.
Two Forces
The annual increase did not come from arrivals alone. Migrant arrivals grew by 6,585, or 5.2 percent, between July 2025 and July 2026. At the same time, departures fell by 4,172, or 3.5 percent. Together, those changes lifted net migration by 10,758.
The July month itself showed the same pattern more strongly. Stats NZ estimated 13,893 migrant arrivals during July 2026, up 18.7 percent from 11,707 in July 2025. Departures were estimated at 8,722, down 7.3 percent from 9,406. Monthly net migration consequently rose to 5,170, compared with 2,301 in July 2025. The published rounded figures were 13,900 arrivals, 8,700 departures and a net gain of 5,200.
Monthly migration is affected by seasonal movements, especially education and travel cycles. Stats NZ’s seasonally adjusted estimate placed July net migration at 3,010, while the trend estimate was 2,960. These adjusted measures indicate that the underlying gain was positive and strengthening, although smaller than the unadjusted monthly figure of 5,170.
Citizen Divide
The most important feature of the report is the difference between citizens and non-citizens. In the year ended July 2026, New Zealand citizens recorded 26,631 migrant arrivals and 64,966 departures. That produced a net loss of 38,335 New Zealand citizens.
The citizen loss was slightly smaller than a year earlier, when it stood at 40,372. Arrivals of New Zealand citizens increased by 7.2 percent, while their departures were almost unchanged, declining by only 0.4 percent. The improvement of 2,037 was meaningful, but the country was still losing far more citizens than it was regaining.
Non-New Zealand citizens moved in the opposite direction. Their arrivals reached 107,803 and their departures fell to 49,118, producing a net gain of 58,685. This was up from a net gain of 49,964 in the previous July year. In rounded terms, the overall net migration gain of 20,300 consisted of a 58,700 gain of non-New Zealand citizens, partly offset by a 38,300 loss of New Zealand citizens.
| Citizenship group | Arrivals | Departures | Net migration |
| New Zealand citizens | 26,631 | 64,966 | -38,335 |
| Non-New Zealand citizens | 107,803 | 49,118 | +58,685 |
| All citizenships | 134,434 | 114,084 | +20,350 |
Asia Leads
Citizens of Asian countries accounted for the largest regional net gain. The year ended July 2026 recorded 71,319 arrivals and 24,293 departures among Asian citizens, leaving a net gain of 47,026. That was 5,477 higher than the corresponding gain one year earlier.
China provided the largest country-level net gain at 12,057. Chinese-citizen arrivals increased sharply to 19,476 from 14,337, while departures rose more modestly to 7,419. India followed with a net gain of 11,503, based on 16,849 arrivals and 5,346 departures. India’s net gain was 773 lower than in the previous year because arrivals declined, despite fewer departures.
The Philippines contributed a net gain of 8,083, almost unchanged from 8,049 a year earlier. Sri Lanka contributed 3,885, down from 5,731. Pakistan’s net gain was 1,082, compared with 1,322 in the previous July year. These figures show why it is unsafe to describe all Asian migration as moving in the same direction: China grew strongly, while several other major sources recorded lower annual arrivals or smaller net gains.
Country Mix Changes
The country pattern also changed outside Asia. United States citizens produced a net gain of 1,807, more than three times the 540 gain recorded a year earlier. US-citizen arrivals rose to 4,390 while departures fell to 2,582. Australian citizens produced a net gain of 1,201, compared with only 88 in the July 2025 year.
European citizens collectively moved from a small net loss of 98 to a net gain of 1,724. However, this regional improvement did not apply to every nationality. German citizens recorded a net gain of 428 and French citizens a gain of 932. United Kingdom citizens, by contrast, recorded a net loss of 553 after a small gain of 202 a year earlier. UK-citizen arrivals fell to 4,194 while departures were broadly stable at 4,747.
| Citizenship | Arrivals | Departures | Net gain or loss |
| China | 19,476 | 7,419 | +12,057 |
| India | 16,849 | 5,346 | +11,503 |
| Philippines | 10,771 | 2,687 | +8,083 |
| Sri Lanka | 4,480 | 594 | +3,885 |
| United States | 4,390 | 2,582 | +1,807 |
| Australia | 4,782 | 3,582 | +1,201 |
| Pakistan | 1,217 | 136 | +1,082 |
| United Kingdom | 4,194 | 4,747 | -553 |
Visa Patterns
The visa information in the spreadsheet relates to the visa held or granted when a migrant arrived. A person may later change visa category while remaining in New Zealand, so these figures should not be treated as a complete account of migrants’ final status.
Work-visa arrivals showed the largest numerical annual increase among the principal visa groups. They rose from 28,056 to 32,355, an increase of 4,299 or 15.3 percent. Student-visa arrivals increased from 28,468 to 29,329, while visitor-visa arrivals rose from 23,070 to 23,521. Arrivals recorded under the New Zealand and Australian citizen category increased from 28,833 to 31,413.
Residence-visa arrivals moved in the opposite direction. They fell from 18,453 to 16,768, a decrease of 1,685 or 9.1 percent. This annual decline does not mean that residence approvals fell by an identical amount. The table measures migrant arrivals by the visa held or granted on arrival, not every immigration decision made during the period.
| Arrival category | July 2025 year | July 2026 year | Annual change |
| Work visa | 28,056 | 32,355 | +4,299 | +15.3% |
| NZ and Australian citizens | 28,833 | 31,413 | +2,580 | +8.9% |
| Student visa | 28,468 | 29,329 | +861 | +3.0% |
| Visitor visa | 23,070 | 23,521 | +451 | +2.0% |
| Resident visa | 18,453 | 16,768 | -1,685 | -9.1% |
| Other | 969 | 1,047 | +78 | +8.0% |
Student Surge
Education was especially important in July. Student-visa arrivals reached 5,380, up from 4,383 in July 2025. They represented about 38.7 percent of all migrant arrivals during the month, matching Stats NZ’s description that just under two in five arrivals were on student visas as the second academic semester began.
The annual student total presents a more measured picture. Student arrivals increased by only 3 percent over the full July year. Within the selected countries of last permanent residence, China recorded 6,293 student-visa arrivals, up 8.5 percent, while India recorded 4,693, down 13.1 percent. Sri Lanka’s figure fell 34.2 percent to 1,731, and the Philippines declined 15.2 percent to 1,820. These are country-of-last-permanent-residence figures, not citizenship totals, and the two concepts should not be confused.
Work Visa Growth
Work-visa arrivals rose more quickly than student, visitor or residence arrivals over the year. The selected country detail again shows an uneven pattern. Work-visa arrivals from China as the last permanent residence increased 61.6 percent to 3,677. India rose 8.5 percent to 3,734, and the Philippines increased 15.6 percent to 2,703.
Other sources moved down. Work-visa arrivals from the United Kingdom fell 27.9 percent to 1,941, South Africa declined 41.8 percent to 584, and Ireland fell 27.1 percent to 199. These movements may reflect labour demand, visa timing, recruitment patterns and changes in where migrants were living before arrival. The data release records the outcome but does not by itself establish the cause.
Australia Pull
The continuing departure of New Zealand citizens remains closely linked to Australia. The latest trans-Tasman breakdown in the release covers the year ended December 2025 rather than July 2026, so it should be read as a separate, older reference period. For that December year, the estimated net migration loss to Australia was 28,500, consisting of a 28,200 loss of New Zealand citizens and a 300 loss of non-New Zealand citizens.
Stats NZ reported that 64 percent of New Zealand-citizen migrant departures in the December 2025 year went to Australia. It also found that 35 percent of the New Zealand citizens who migrated to Australia during that year had been born outside New Zealand. The figures underline Australia’s attraction not only to New Zealand-born residents but also to naturalised or returning citizens with wider international backgrounds.
Reading Estimates
New Zealand’s official migration measure is outcomes-based. A migrant arrival is an overseas resident who enters New Zealand and cumulatively spends at least 12 of the following 16 months in the country. A migrant departure is a New Zealand resident who leaves and cumulatively spends at least 12 of the following 16 months overseas.
Because the final travel history is not immediately known, recent results are estimated by a statistical model. They are revised as further border movement information becomes available and become final only after the required observation period. Stats NZ says it takes about 17 months before an estimate can be finalised under the 12/16-month rule.
The confidence intervals describe uncertainty within the provisional model; they do not predict the size of later revisions. Stats NZ also warns that recent months generally have greater uncertainty than older periods. In the July release, the preceding June 2026 monthly estimate was revised up by 600 for arrivals, down by 200 for departures and up by 700 for net migration. The year-ended June estimate was revised down by 100 for net migration after changes to both arrivals and departures.
What It Means
The July data points to a migration system that is again delivering a larger overall population gain, but through a very different balance from the 2023 peak. The country is attracting more non-citizens and recording fewer total departures, while the net loss of its own citizens remains exceptionally large in relation to the overall gain.
For employers, the 15.3 percent increase in work-visa migrant arrivals suggests that international recruitment remains important. For education providers, the strong July student inflow offers a positive start to the second semester, although annual growth was modest and several source markets declined. For policymakers, the continuing citizen outflow raises questions about wages, opportunities, housing and New Zealand’s ability to retain people already entitled to live and work in the country.
These figures should not be presented as proof of any single policy success or failure. Migration results reflect decisions made by migrants, employers, students and families, as well as economic conditions in New Zealand and overseas. What the statistics show with confidence is the direction of travel: net migration strengthened considerably during the year to July 2026, the non-citizen gain expanded, and the loss of New Zealand citizens remained substantial.
Next Release
Stats NZ is scheduled to publish International migration: August 2026 on 14 October 2026. That release will revise the latest provisional figures and show whether the stronger net gain seen through July continued into the following month.