On 2 February 2026, the UK’s House of Commons held a significant Westminster Hall debate on proposed reforms to Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR). At the centre of the discussion was the Government’s plan to introduce an “earned settlement” model — including doubling the standard qualifying period from five years to ten.
The issue gained momentum after two public petitions crossed the 100,000-signature threshold, triggering parliamentary scrutiny.
No Immigration Rules have changed yet. But the direction of travel is clear: settlement in the UK may soon become longer, more conditional, and more selective.
Why the Debate Happened
Two public petitions forced the issue into Parliament:
- Keep 5-Year ILR and Restrict Access to Benefits for New ILR Holders – 234,000+ signatures
- Protect Legal Migrants: Do Not Implement the 10-Year ILR Proposal – 106,000+ signatures
This strong public response led MPs to debate whether extending ILR routes — especially retrospectively — would be fair.
What Is the “Earned Settlement” Model?
The proposals are set out in the Government’s Command Paper A Fairer Pathway to Settlement. The key idea: settlement should not depend mainly on time spent in the UK. Instead, it should be “earned.”
Current System vs Proposed Model
| Current ILR System | Proposed Earned Settlement Model |
| 5-year qualifying period (most routes) | 10-year baseline qualifying period |
| Settlement based on contribution, integration, English level, and compliance | Settlement based on contribution, integration, English level, compliance |
| Clear and predictable progression | Conditional, with possible reductions or extensions |
| Automatic progression if criteria met | No automatic guarantee |
Under the new model:
- 10 years would become the standard baseline
- Reductions may apply for high contribution or public service roles
- Longer routes may apply if public funds were used or immigration rules breached
- English language ability may carry greater weight
The Government says the reform responds to projected high settlement numbers between 2026 and 2030 and pressure on housing and public services.
Will the 10-Year Rule Apply to People Already in the UK?
This is the most controversial issue: retrospectivity.
Many MPs argued that applying new rules to migrants who entered under a five-year route would “move the goalposts.”
Labour MP Tony Vaughan warned that changing settlement timelines mid-way would undermine trust and damage sectors already facing recruitment shortages.
MP Barry Gardiner raised financial concerns, citing cases where families had already paid tens of thousands of pounds in visa fees under the expectation of a five-year pathway.
Government Position
The Minister for Migration and Citizenship, Mike Tapp, confirmed:
- The Government intends to proceed in principle
- The current system will not be maintained
- Transitional arrangements are still under consultation
- No final decision has been made on how changes will apply to those already in the UK
The public consultation closes on 12 February 2026.
Until new Immigration Rules are formally introduced, the current five-year routes remain in place.
Who Keeps the Five-Year Route?
Two categories are confirmed to retain a five-year settlement route:
- Partners, parents and children of British citizens
- British National (Overseas) visa holders
These reductions are described as firm policy, not subject to consultation.
ILR Reform in Context: A Wider Policy Shift
The earned settlement proposal is not happening in isolation. The UK Immigration White Paper 2025 already signalled:
- Higher skill thresholds for Skilled Workers
- Fewer eligible occupation codes
- Increased Immigration Skills Charge
- Reduced reliance on overseas recruitment
Settlement reform completes this arc by making permanent residence harder to obtain. In short, this all indeed means long-term residence is becoming more selective.
What This Means for Applicants
Although nothing has changed legally, uncertainty itself creates risk.
1. Applicants Close to Five Years
If you are approaching ILR eligibility:
- Applying under current rules may protect you from future changes
- But rushing a weak application could lead to refusal and a greater risk
Timing and preparation matter.
2. Applicants Mid-Route
If you are two or three years into a five-year pathway:
- You must plan for the possibility of a 10-year route
- Major financial decisions (property, education, business investment) should factor in longer timelines
- Retrospectivity has not been ruled out
Uncertainty remains until transitional rules are published.
3. Preparing for an Earned Model
Regardless of timing, applicants should begin documenting:
- Continuous lawful employment
- Tax compliance
- English language progression
- Community integration
- Public service or volunteering (where relevant)
It is still unclear how “contribution” will be measured. Salary may become a proxy — a point critics say could unfairly disadvantage sectors like care work.
What This Means for Employers
Settlement reform is not just an individual issue. It affects workforce planning.
Key Risks for Employers
| Issue | Potential Impact |
| Longer settlement routes | Reduced retention |
| Repeat visa renewals | Higher sponsorship costs |
| Immigration Skills Charge exposure | Increased long-term cost |
| Staff uncertainty | Lower morale |
Employers relying on international workers should:
- Identify employees expecting five-year ILR in the next 2–5 years
- Model cost exposure if routes extend to ten years
- Consider submitting evidence to the consultation
- Avoid promising settlement timelines during recruitment
The UK is repositioning settlement as conditional rather than automatic. That changes the long-term employment landscape.
What Happens Next?
Step 1: Consultation Closes (12 February 2026)
Stakeholders can still submit responses.
Step 2: Government Response
The Home Office will publish its formal position.
Step 3: Statement of Changes to Immigration Rules
No reform takes effect until new rules are laid before Parliament.
Step 4: Phased Implementation
Route-specific start dates and transitional provisions are expected. For now, the five-year ILR system remains law.
The Core Question
Is settlement a right earned through time and compliance — or a privilege that must be continually justified? That is the policy debate now unfolding.
What is clear is this: the five-year pathway can no longer be treated as guaranteed. Applicants and employers who assume stability may be caught off guard. Preparation, documentation and strategic timing will matter more than ever.