The population of the United Kingdom is still expected to grow over the coming years, but not as quickly as once thought. According to the latest update from the Office for National Statistics, the country’s population is now projected to reach around 71 million by mid-2034. This is lower than an earlier estimate of 72.2 million, mainly due to reduced expectations for immigration.
At present, the UK population stands at about 69.3 million. Over the next decade, most of the increase will come from people moving into the country rather than from natural growth. In fact, the number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births, creating a natural decline of around 450,000 people. In reality, without immigration, the population would likely shrink rather than grow.
Below is the estimated and projected population* of the UK and constituent countries, mid-2024 to mid-2049:
| Countries | 2024 | 2029 | 2034 | 2039 | 2044 | 2049 |
| UK | 69,281 | 70,224 | 71,014 | 71,594 | 72,063 | 72,410 |
| England | 58,620 | 59,518 | 60,294 | 60,899 | 61,416 | 61,832 |
| Wales | 3,187 | 3,208 | 3,218 | 3,216 | 3,208 | 3,195 |
| Scotland | 5,547 | 5,558 | 5,563 | 5,548 | 5,518 | 5,475 |
| Northern Ireland | 1,928 | 1,940 | 1,939 | 1,931 | 1,922 | 1,909 |
Immigration Remains the Main Driver
The statistics show quite clearly that immigration will continue to play a central role in shaping the country’s future. Net migration is expected to add around 2.2 million people between 2024 and 2034. This means it will be the only real source of population growth during this period.
However, the assumptions behind these projections have changed. The expected level of net migration has been lowered to about 230,000 people per year, compared to an earlier estimate of 340,000. This adjustment reflects the noticeable drop in migration numbers after their peak in recent years.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK experienced a sharp rise in immigration. This was partly due to delayed movement during lockdown periods and partly due to policy changes under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which made it easier for certain groups, including care workers and their families, to enter the country.
At its height, net migration approached nearly one million people in the year leading up to June 2023. Since then, tighter rules have brought that number down significantly, with recent figures showing around 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
An Ageing Population Becomes Clearer
One of the most striking aspects of these projections is the ageing of the population. The number of pensioners is expected to rise by about 15%, reaching 14.2 million by 2034. At the same time, the number of children under the age of 16 is expected to fall by 13%.
This shift has important consequences. An ageing population often means greater demand for healthcare, pensions, and social support, while a shrinking younger population can reduce the size of the workforce over time.
The fertility rate has also been slightly revised downward. Women in the UK are now expected to have an average of 1.42 children, compared to 1.45 in earlier projections. While this may seem like a small change, it adds to the long-term trend of lower birth rates.
Regional Differences Across the UK
Population growth will not be evenly spread across the country. England is expected to see the strongest increase, with its population rising by about 2.9% by 2034. Other parts of the UK will grow much more slowly.
- Wales is projected to grow by 1.0%
- Northern Ireland by 0.6%
- Scotland by just 0.3%
These differences may reflect variations in economic opportunities, housing availability, and migration patterns within the UK.
Economic Pressures on the Horizon
Slower population growth could bring additional challenges for the government, particularly when it comes to managing public finances. Finance minister Rachel Reeves is likely to face increasing pressure in the coming years, especially when preparing future budgets.
With fewer working-age people and more retirees, balancing tax income and public spending becomes more difficult. This is something policymakers will need to consider carefully.
A Note of Caution
It is important to remember that these figures are not firm predictions. The Office for National Statistics has made it clear that its projections are based largely on recent trends. They do not attempt to predict future government policies or unexpected changes in migration, birth rates, or life expectancy. In other words, these numbers give us a direction, not a certainty.
Additional Insight
A related report from Bloomberg highlights just how important migration is to the UK’s future population. It suggests that if net migration were to fall to zero, the country’s population could shrink by as much as 4 million people over time.
This reinforces the idea that migration is not just a supporting factor but a central pillar in maintaining population stability. Without it, the effects of low birth rates and an ageing society would become far more pronounced.