UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has signalled that the government may reconsider controversial proposals that could force some overseas care workers to wait 15 years before qualifying for permanent residence in the UK, following growing pressure from within Labour and trade unions.
Speaking at the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool on 28 September 2026, Mahmood acknowledged concerns about the fairness of parts of the government’s proposed “earned settlement” system and said ministers would seek a balance between people who had migrated to Britain legally and the interests of British citizens.
The development could be particularly important for thousands of Health and Care Worker visa holders who came to Britain expecting that, if they continued to meet the relevant requirements, they could potentially apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) after five years.
However, migrants should be careful not to interpret Mahmood’s comments as a confirmed U-turn.
No revised settlement rules have yet been announced, and the proposed 15-year qualifying period for some lower-skilled workers has not become law.
The government is still considering how its wider earned-settlement reforms should operate, including the crucial question of whether people already living in Britain should receive transitional protection.
MAHMOOD ACKNOWLEDGES FAIRNESS CONCERNS
Mahmood used her Labour conference speech to defend the principle behind reforming legal migration while acknowledging criticism of some elements of the proposals.
She told the conference that the government wanted settlement to be earned by migrants who demonstrated a consistent commitment to Britain, but recognised that concerns had been raised during consultation.
Mahmood said the government would reach a position balancing “fairness for those who came here legally” with fairness to British citizens.
The BBC reported that the comments represented a signal that Mahmood was prepared to rethink aspects of the plan amid pressure from Labour MPs, trade unions and Housing Secretary Angela Rayner.
The Guardian similarly reported that Mahmood appeared open to watering down parts of the proposed settlement changes, with particular controversy surrounding overseas care workers.
But the Home Secretary did not announce what the final qualifying period would be for care workers.
That distinction is important. The government is reconsidering the details; it has not yet published replacement Immigration Rules giving care workers a new settlement timetable.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT RULE?
Under the rules currently published on GOV.UK, a person on the Health and Care Worker route may be able to apply for permanent settlement after completing five qualifying years in the UK, provided they meet all the other requirements for ILR.
Official Skilled Worker and Health and Care Worker settlement guidance continues to state that an applicant must normally have lived in Britain for five years before applying for indefinite leave to remain.
Therefore, the existing five-year system should not be confused with the government’s proposed earned-settlement model.
At present:
5 years = existing potential ILR pathway for qualifying Health and Care Worker visa holders.
10 years = proposed standard baseline under the earned-settlement reforms.
15 years = proposed baseline for certain workers in occupations below RQF Level 6, which could include care workers and senior care workers.
The 10- and 15-year periods are proposals being considered as part of the reform programme; they are not yet the general settlement rules currently applying to care workers.
WHERE DID THE 15-YEAR PROPOSAL COME FROM?
The Home Office formally published its “A Fairer Pathway to Settlement” consultation in November 2025.
It proposed moving away from a system in which many migrants become eligible for settlement after a fixed five-year period.
Instead, the government proposed an “earned settlement” model under which the normal starting point would become 10 years, with the qualifying period potentially reduced or increased according to factors including contribution, integration and immigration history.
The consultation went further for workers sponsored in jobs below RQF Level 6, broadly below graduate level. It specifically consulted on a 15-year baseline qualifying period for this group.
The Home Office highlighted care workers because a large proportion of workers recruited through the Health and Care route in recent years entered occupations below RQF Level 6.
Official figures cited in the consultation show that around 75% of Skilled Worker visas on the Health and Care route in 2023 were issued for occupations below RQF Level 6, compared with 11% in 2021. This is why the settlement debate is particularly important for care workers.
THE BIG QUESTION: WHAT HAPPENS TO PEOPLE ALREADY IN THE UK?
For existing migrants, this may be the most important unresolved issue. The government’s consultation explicitly acknowledges that, without transitional arrangements, a new earned-settlement system could affect people who are already on a settlement pathway but have not obtained ILR when the relevant new Immigration Rules take effect.
The Home Office therefore asked whether transitional arrangements should be introduced to ease the impact on people already in Britain.
No final transitional system has yet been confirmed. That means someone who arrived as a care worker expecting a five-year route should not yet assume either outcome:
they should not assume that they will definitely be forced to wait 15 years, but neither should they assume that everyone already in Britain will automatically remain protected under the old five-year rules. This is precisely the part of the policy that remains politically sensitive.
For a worker who arrived in, for example, 2022 and is approaching the existing five-year point in 2027, transitional arrangements could determine whether that person can continue toward settlement under the present system or becomes subject to some form of revised qualifying period.
Until the government publishes the final policy and corresponding Immigration Rules, that question remains unresolved.
WHY ARE CARE WORKERS AT THE CENTRE OF THE DEBATE?
The number of people entering Britain through the Health and Care route increased dramatically after care workers and senior care workers became eligible for the route in February 2022.
According to Home Office figures cited in the earned-settlement consultation, approximately 616,000 people were granted Health and Care entry-clearance visas between 2022 and 2024, including main applicants and dependants.
The Home Office estimates that around 384,000 additional settlement applications could arise from the Health and Care cohort between 2027 and 2029 under historical settlement behaviour, with a potential peak of about 210,000 in 2028.
The government has used fiscal and migration considerations to justify tougher settlement proposals.
A Home Office analysis published in March 2026 estimated a combined lifetime net fiscal cost of around £9.5 billion, rounded to £10 billion, for care workers and their adult dependants expected to settle between 2026 and 2030 under the assumptions used in that analysis.
Those estimates form part of the government’s policy argument, but critics of the proposed 15-year route argue that existing care workers came legally under rules that offered a substantially shorter pathway to settlement.
PRESSURE FROM LABOUR AND UNIONS
The settlement plan has faced substantial political resistance. According to the BBC and Guardian, Angela Rayner and trade unions have been among those pressing for changes, particularly over the effect on overseas care workers already contributing to Britain’s social-care system.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham also said ahead of Mahmood’s speech that the government had to find the correct balance and pointed out that the consultation process had produced a range of views.
The debate therefore now appears to be focused not simply on whether settlement rules will become tougher, but how tough they will be and which existing migrants, if any, will be protected from the changes.
Mahmood’s conference comments suggest those concerns are being considered before the final policy is settled. They do not, however, guarantee a complete withdrawal of the 15-year proposal.
CARE WORKER RECRUITMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN TIGHTENED
The settlement debate comes after several major restrictions were already imposed on the care-worker route.
Since 22 July 2025, employers have no longer been permitted to sponsor new care workers and senior care workers directly from overseas under the route.
A transitional period remains available until July 2028 for certain people already in Britain who want to switch into qualifying care roles, subject to the applicable requirements.
Restrictions on care workers bringing dependants were introduced earlier, in March 2024, although exceptions remain for some workers who were already continuously employed under the route before the change.
As a result, the settlement proposal forms part of a much wider restructuring of the UK’s approach to lower-paid sponsored migration.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CARE WORKERS NOW?
For migrants already approaching five years in Britain, the most important message is that nothing announced at the Labour conference has itself changed the existing ILR rules.
Current GOV.UK guidance continues to provide a potential five-year pathway to settlement for qualifying Skilled Worker and Health and Care Worker visa holders.
The government’s proposed earned-settlement system could change that in the future. However, the final qualifying periods, exemptions and transitional protections have not yet been confirmed.
Mahmood’s latest intervention is significant because it suggests the government is actively considering the fairness concerns raised about applying substantially longer settlement periods to people who migrated legally under an existing framework.
For a care worker who has already spent three, four or nearly five years building a life in Britain, the transitional rules may ultimately be just as important as the headline 10- or 15-year figures.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The next decisive development will be the government’s formal response following the earned-settlement consultation and, ultimately, the publication of any new Immigration Rules required to implement the policy.
Until those rules are published, migrants should distinguish carefully between political announcements and proposals and the settlement law actually in force.
Mahmood has now publicly indicated that ministers are listening to arguments about fairness, but she has not announced whether care workers will receive a special exemption, whether existing workers will be protected, whether the 15-year period will be reduced, or exactly how any transitional arrangements will operate.
For existing Health and Care Worker visa holders, those details will determine whether the government’s rethink represents a limited adjustment or a much more substantial change to the original settlement plan.
Visa Guru will continue to monitor the official Home Office announcement and the Immigration Rules for confirmation of the final settlement system.