Thousands of migrants living and working in the United Kingdom still do not know when—or in what form—the government’s proposed “earned settlement” system will be introduced.
The public consultation closed on 12 February 2026 after receiving more than 200,000 responses. As of 15 August, the government had not published its final response or introduced the main settlement changes. The official GOV.UK consultation page still describes the process as a closed consultation rather than a completed reform.
The earned settlement plan could replace the standard five-year route to Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) with a ten-year baseline for most migrants. Some people could qualify sooner because of their earnings, skills or public-service work, while others may face a wait of 15, 20 or even 30 years.
However, the most important point for visa holders is that most of these proposals have not yet become law.
How Could the Waiting Period Change?
The government’s consultation proposed several ways for applicants to shorten their route from the ten-year starting point.
A person earning more than £50,270 in taxable income for the three years before applying could receive a five-year reduction. Those earning more than £125,140 during the same period could receive a seven-year reduction, potentially allowing them to settle after three years.
Other possible reductions were proposed for highly skilled public-service workers, people with advanced English at C1 level and those making a recognised contribution through community work.
On the other hand, the qualifying period could become longer for some applicants. Receiving public funds for less than 12 months could add five years, while receiving them for longer could add ten years. The consultation also considered penalties of up to 20 additional years for people who originally entered as visitors, entered without permission or overstayed for at least six months.
A House of Commons Home Affairs Committee report concluded that the possible pathways under the consultation ranged from as little as three years to as long as 30 years. These figures remain proposals and should not be treated as current ILR rules.
One Important Change Has Already Been Confirmed
Although the main earned-settlement package remains undecided, the government has confirmed a higher English-language requirement for several ILR routes.
From 26 March 2027, affected applicants will generally need English at B2 level instead of B1. The change covers routes including Skilled Worker, Global Talent, Scale-up, Innovator Founder, UK Ancestry, Long Residence and several family or private-life categories.
The government announced the change in March 2026 and provided one year’s notice. According to the Home Office, applicants may need around 200 hours of learning to move from B1 to B2, although individual preparation times will vary.
People expecting to apply for settlement on or after 26 March 2027 should check whether the higher standard applies to their particular immigration route.
Will the New Rules Affect People Already in the UK?
This remains one of the biggest unanswered questions.
The original consultation said that without transitional protection, the reforms would apply to people who were already on a pathway to settlement but had not received ILR when the new rules took effect.
That possibility has caused concern among migrants who entered the UK expecting to qualify after five years. Many have already made long-term decisions about employment, housing and their children’s education based on the existing rules.
The Greater Manchester Immigration Aid Unit argues that changing the qualifying period for people already living in Britain would damage trust and force families to pay visa renewal fees for many additional years.
The government could still introduce transitional arrangements, protect certain existing visa holders or apply the new system only to future arrivals. No final decision had been announced by mid-August.
Could Care Workers Receive an Exemption?
Care workers are at the centre of the debate because many would fall into the proposed 15-year category for jobs below degree level.
The Home Office expects Health and Care visa holders to account for a significant share of future settlement applications. Its central forecast suggests that around 1.6 million people across all routes could receive settlement between 2026 and 2030 if the system remained unchanged.
At the same time, the social-care sector continues to depend heavily on overseas workers. Employers and trade unions have warned that a much longer ILR pathway could make recruitment and staff retention more difficult.
Media reports suggest that the government is considering protecting care workers who are already in the country from some of the stricter rules. However, no formal exemption has been published. Until it appears in an official government announcement or the Immigration Rules, it remains a possibility rather than confirmed policy.
Concerns About Poverty and Long-Term Insecurity
GMIAU estimates that the reforms could affect as many as one in ten Greater Manchester residents. The organisation says longer settlement routes would expose families to repeated visa fees, debt and the continuing risk of losing lawful status if a future renewal application failed.
It also argues that penalties connected to public funds could discourage eligible families from seeking financial support when they genuinely need it.
Children could be particularly affected. A longer period without permanent status may influence access to education, employment and financial opportunities as they grow older. The government has said it will consider safeguards for children and vulnerable applicants, but the final details are still unknown.
The Government’s Argument
The government says permanent residence should reflect sustained contribution and integration rather than simply the number of years spent in Britain.
Its proposed mandatory conditions include a clean criminal record, no outstanding government debt, passing the Life in the UK test and meeting stronger English and income requirements.
Ministers also argue that the reforms are needed ahead of a predicted rise in settlement applications. Under the Home Office’s central estimate, annual settlement numbers could reach around 450,000 in 2028.
Critics dispute parts of the financial case and warn that longer routes could discourage skilled workers from remaining in Britain. They also say repeated visa fees and prolonged uncertainty may make integration harder rather than easier.
Refugee Changes Are a Separate Policy
The earned-settlement proposals for legal migration should not be confused with the government’s separate “core protection” policy for refugees.
Adults and accompanied children who claimed asylum on or after 2 March 2026 can now receive an initial 30 months of protection instead of five years. Their need for protection may then be reviewed.
The government has also announced a planned 20-year settlement pathway for refugees who remain under core protection, although further rules are required to establish the full long-term system. Different arrangements continue to apply to people who claimed asylum earlier and to certain unaccompanied children.
What Is Earned Settlement?
Settlement, also called Indefinite Leave to Remain, gives a person the right to live permanently in the UK without a time limit on their stay. It is also an important step towards British citizenship.
Under many existing work and family routes, migrants can normally apply for ILR after five years, provided they meet the relevant conditions.
The proposed earned-settlement model would start most applicants on a ten-year pathway. Their qualifying period could then be reduced or extended according to four main areas: character, integration, contribution and residence.
The government says this approach would reward people who contribute to the economy and wider society. Critics argue that it would leave many families with temporary status for much longer and create greater financial and emotional insecurity.
Proposed Settlement Changes at a Glance
| Area | Proposed position | Status in August 2026 |
| Standard ILR pathway | Increase the usual baseline from 5 to 10 years | Not yet implemented |
| Skilled workers in jobs below degree level | Possible 15-year baseline | Not yet implemented |
| Higher earners | Possible reduction from the 10-year baseline | Not yet implemented |
| Skilled public-service workers | Possible settlement after 5 years | Not yet implemented |
| Receipt of public funds | Possible addition of 5 or 10 years | Not yet implemented |
| Certain immigration-history issues | Possible addition of up to 20 years | Not yet implemented |
| English requirement | Increase from B1 to B2 for several routes | Confirmed from 26 March 2027 |
| Application to existing visa holders | Government proposed applying reforms to people who are not yet settled | Final arrangements not confirmed |
| EU Settlement and Windrush schemes | Excluded from the proposed reforms | No change proposed |
What Should Visa Holders Do Now?
Most migrants on existing work or family routes should continue following the Immigration Rules that currently apply to them. The proposed ten and 15-year settlement periods should not be treated as active rules until the government publishes the final policy and brings the relevant changes into force.
Applicants should keep records of their visas, employment, earnings, tax payments, absences and English-language qualifications. Those planning to apply after March 2027 should also check whether they will need to meet the new B2 English standard.
For now, the future of earned settlement remains uncertain. The government must still decide the final qualifying periods, exemptions, transitional protection and whether any restrictions on access to public funds will form part of the new system. Until those decisions are formally announced, reports about concessions or implementation dates should be treated with caution.